Lebanon crisis, take x

So, I've been trying to follow what is happening in Lebanon these days. Apart from reading the papers, that involves of course checking out what people write on their blogs. And wow, it can get very tiring very fast to try to form a picture of events that way. It seems pretty much everyone loves their conspiracy theories, with a few helpful and/or thoughtful postings that actually have something meaningful to say. That is at least my impression as a consumer of blog posts, while like everyone else I am of the opinion that my posts do have something to say.

Dissatisfied with the reporting in German and English-language media of the most recent outbreak of major violence in Lebanon which started on May 20, I first came across the UN office for humanitarian affairs' news site. That seemed more helpful. Haaretz, the Israeli paper, also carried much more up-to-date info than anything based over here in Europe, at least during the first few days (they must now be content to file this as unimportant, because Lebanon's nowhere to be found on there these past few days. Or maybe it's because so much is happening in Gaza right now..).

Shocked and awed by what had seemed a total impossibility, judging by the conversations I had while in Lebanon - namely, the renewed outbreak of violence between the Lebanese army and an armed group inside Lebanon - I started to read and watch anything I could find. What particularly upset me was the video footage of the first one or two days of shootings, when clashes happened in several places in Tripoli. It's the combination of the sudden outbreak of anarchy, of each person's life and health suddenly being a matter of luck and negotiation, and the abyss of hatred, anxiety and adrenalin visible on the men's faces in these pictures that shocked me. To me, it seemed that they were falling back into old, all-to-familiar patterns of action left over from the civil war, perhaps - just watch the way the shooters (Internal Security Forces?) are interacting among themselves. There is something so everyday about it, underneath all the fear of the moment. Plus, of course, the way many civilians cheer on the army in firing on the Palestinian refugee camp.

This particulary haunted me when I seemed to recognise places in the city that I might have visited myself during the past year.

It seems that I wasn't the only one to make comparisons with the past during these days - as this Comment by apokraphyte from Remarkz shows:

I will relate a personal anecdote. Last summer when I was in Beirut, I recall seeing an exhibit about the famine that resulted from the Ottoman blockade from 1915-1919 (??). It really shook me. I had always tried to understand the civil war according to the political, economic, military and social realities. But these horribly gruesome picture really made me stop and consider where the terrible inhumanity, where the terrible brutality came from. After seeing those photos, I really began to understand how the value of human life can become so degraded that people will trade in it to achieve their political and economic objectives.

The photos still haunt me. Mostly because I think it is almost impossible for me to reconcile the warmth and generosity of most Lebanese I know with this horrible meanness that seems to lurk under the surface of social relations. Maybe I should do a post, but I am fearful of making wild generalizations for no purpose. Dunno.

Although I haven't read much of the sort by Lebanese bloggers. Perhaps an indulgent foreign pastime.

Anyway, as the events continued to unfold, it quickly became clear who was bearing the brunt of violence: Palestinian civilians. Indiscriminate shelling + 40,000 people + 1,5 sqkm in Nahr al Barid refugee camp = anyone can "do the maths", as they say. The few things I could find on what is actually happening (although I have many misgivings about this particular article) inside the camp are haunting. As is the fallout of this crisis for any Palestinian in Lebanon who is now, more than even before, a target for the various Lebanese security agencies. Not to mention that the closest refugee camp, Baddawi, now has to take in all the refugees from Nahr el Bared, putting further strains on the living conditions there.

Help campaigns have sprung up. UNRWA, after initially being fired upon while trying to get supplies into the camp that has now been cut off from water, electricity and of course, food, for 10 days and counting, is now managing to deliver supplies to Baddawi at least.

As to the political narratives of what is happening - they are many! Most people can agree that Fatah al-Islam, the group the army is trying to eradicate by shelling Nahr al Barid camp, is of an "Islamist" persuasion. Backgrounders on the group are everywhere now - just run a Google search. But what do they want, how did they get into the camp, and who sponsors them? Of course the Lebanese government (in Blog posts often known as "the club", "the Welch club", "Hariri, Inc." or "March 14"), and presumably pro-government blogs which I hardly read, think it's the Syrians. As does, interestingly, a portion of the German press (Rainer Herrman, FAZ). And a colleague of mine at work (I work in one of those think tank thingees) would agree. The argument: Syria wants to stop the formation of an international tribunal to try the suspects in the Hariri murder by creating mayhem in Lebanon. It is not entirely clear how the chain of reasoning works in this, but if anything can be counted as initial proof, it would have to be the postponement of the debate on the tribunal in the UN Security Council.

But a lot of people doubt this is the case. Most prominently, Seymour Hersh, the US journalist. He had argued in an article a few weeks back that Fatah al Islam had been funded by the Hariri movement (the strategy: build up a Sunni militia to counterbalance Hizballah). He refutes the argument that Syria supports Fatah al-Islam in a TV interview, but his reasoning seems a bit twisted. To the point of making, as Remarkz once again points out, CNN presenter Hala Gorani appear more together than he is. And that goes a long way of showing how weak his argument must be. And Jamal averts that Hersh's assertion of Hariri funding for Fatah al Islam is based on a single source.

OK, where does that leave us? To be honest, I have no idea and I can only add that I am instintively wary of Syria conspiracy theories. I simply can't see how the current strife is helping Syria in any way - just as I couldn't - and still can't - for the Hariri bombing. So maybe it has all developed its own dynamics which Syria is not controlling, and it is banking on the long-term effect of being needed for overall regional stability. I don't know. We will probably never know - or will we?

And Hizballah - the opposition? They are lying low it seems. It took them a while to come out in support of Palestinian refugees. Everyone is watching which move Walid Jumblatt is going to make next. The US are shipping arms to Lebanon to support the army. Siniora is trying to retain control. As the saga continues... and oh, I forgot to mention the concurrent bombing campaing: bombs set off at night during the past week, in Achrafiyeh (Christian area of Beirut), Verdun (Muslim area of Beirut), Aley (Druze village)...